(*the below post is by guest contributor Michael Pina)
Expectations
are as much a part of sports as tangible production, for better or worse. We
look at players who we think will make a positive impact in the future
differently than those we don’t, even in situations where the latter is
consistently outperforming the former right before our eyes.
In
this way, expectations do more harm than good. But ironically, in major league
baseball, a sport that includes a larger dose of “luck” as a part of its recipe
for both individual and team success than any other, Baseball America’s Top 100
prospect list typically reads like a gateway into the sport’s bright future, at
least for the players listed near the top.
Right
now the preceding two paragraphs are more relevant to the Texas Rangers than
any other organization; as you’re probably aware, they have Jurickson Profar,
baseball’s number one prospect in 2013 and an instinctive baseball wizard,
according to Baseball America.
So,
how accurate has Baseball America been over the past decade at predicting who’s
going to become a household name? And what does it mean for Profar, who despite
his enormous potential and odds on ability to make at least a few All-Star
games, will start the season in Triple A?
In
2012 Profar was named the seventh best prospect in baseball, behind, in
descending order, Jesus Montero, Julio Teheran, Yu Darvish, Mike Trout, Matt
Moore, and Bryce Harper. Every one of those players has either already made an
impact at the major league level, or begun to send positive ripples throughout
their respective organizations.
Let’s
go through the previous nine years and take a closer look at Baseball America’s
top prospect; see if there’s anything Profar, and the Rangers, have to worry
about.
Baseball
America’s top prospect selection was the same in 2011 as it was in 2012: Bryce
Harper. A player who graced the cover of Sports Illustrated as a teenager and
in limited major league action more than looks like he belongs. If Harper
doesn’t win at least one MVP award in his career he’ll be a major disappointment.
In
2010 it was Jason Heyward, a sweet swinging lefty who, going by projections
before his debut, was calculated to average two home runs per game. He hasn’t
quite done that, but out of everyone in his 2007 draft class, Heyward has the
second highest Wins Above Replacement (WAR), and last year he hit 27 home runs
on a team that went to the playoffs. Not bad.
Almost
every name listed as a top 20 prospect in 2010 is already well known in
baseball circles: Stephen Strasburg, Mike Stanton, Madison Bumgarner, Starlin
Castro, Jeremy Hellickson, Domonic Brown, Justin Smoak, Buster Posey, Desmond
Jennings, and more.
In
2009 the top prospect was Baltimore Orioles franchise catcher Matt Wieters,
with perennial Cy Young candidate David Price coming in second.
The
year after that Cincinnati Reds outfielder Jay Bruce was number one. Out of all
of Baseball America’s number one prospects since 2003, Bruce’s career might be
the biggest let down if you look at what he’s done on a relative level (right
behind him was Evan Longoria). But by no means is he a bad player. At the age
of 25 Bruce has made two All-Star teams and his power numbers have improved
every year since his debut.
In
2007 the top prospect was the infamous Japanese pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka, who
despite going 18-3 with a 2.90 ERA at the age of 27, also led the league in
hits per nine innings (6.9) and walks that year. It was downhill from there.
Matsuzaka did, however, win his one and only World Series start in 2007—even if
he did only go 5.1 innings.
Delmon
Young and Justin Upton were the top two prospects in 2006. Now on his fourth
team, Young has yet to reach his full potential, and probably never will. But
despite his early career shortcomings in the field, Young has transformed
himself into a dangerous DH who’ll swing at just about anything. And that was
good enough to win the 2012 American League Championship Series MVP award.
In
both 2004 and 2005, the top prospect was Minnesota Twins lifer Joe Mauer, one
of the very best players in baseball since making his debut at the age of 20.
He’s a three-time batting champ who was named MVP in 2009 after leading the
league in batting average, on base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS.
He’s very, very good.
In
2003, 10 years removed from Profar being number one, the top prospect was Mark
Teixeira. Long past his prime, the Yankees slugger has had a consistent career
at both the plate and first base, where he’s walked away with five Gold Glove
awards.
In
the last decade, all eight players listed below Profar as Baseball America’s
top prospect has, for the most part, played how most people thought they would.
All were destined for greatness, and all have already—or, barring injury,
surely will—treat the threatening word “expectation” like frothing college
football players exploding onto the field, straight through their school’s
banner.
The
stage is set for Jurickson Profar to join them.
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